Scenario Analysis
- 內容
QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT (QRA) MODELS AND MODEL INPUTS
The objective of risk analysis is to evaluate, order and structure incomplete knowledge so as to allow decisions to be made with as complete an understanding as possible of the current state of knowledge, its limitations and its implications (Morgan and Henrion 1992). With this in mind, simplicity and transparency in the model are essential in order that persons providing the peer review and those conducting the decisions have a clear understanding. Visuals of the model should be used. These visuals should ideally be single page portrayals of the question and should clearly depict the model and its inputs.